Ségolène Royal Could Soon Become France's Next President

By Stefan Simons in Paris

For the first time in the history of France, a woman stands a chance of moving into the Elysée Palace. Socialist politician Ségolène Royal is benefiting from the weaknesses of her rivals, who have been handicapped by a controversial labor law that brought millions of students to the streets in protest.

With its neat side streets, sidewalks lined with flower pots, a bakery, two bistros and a hair salon, the town square of Neuville-de-Poitou, an hour's drive from the southwestern city of Poitiers, conveys an air of carefully tended tranquility. Stacks of fruit and vegetables, sheep cheese and links of sausages on the market square complete the picture.

On the outskirts of this bucolic little town, Ségolène Royal holds court in a building supply warehouse. Water drips into a 200-liter rain barrel next to a sale rack of rubber boots and winter coats.

In the presence of the mayor, local officials and a dozen skeptical farmers, Royal, the president of the Poitou-Charentes region, is calling on her constituents to conserve water. She has just launched a program dubbed "Operation 10,000 Rainwater Barrels," and now she's promoting the program with what would seem a rather traditional argument: "In the past, everyone had a pond or a cistern. Now we need collection barrels to help protect the environment."

At first glance, the appearance may seem a bit small potatoes for a woman with ambitions to capture the country's highest office. But it's just one example of what people here have dubbed the "Methode Royal," or Royal method, the candidate's skillful way of establishing connections between seemingly small issues and the big picture, in this case, the local drought and global climate change.

Until recently, the idea of having a female president would have been inconceivable in France. But popular Royal, 52, could very well succeed in becoming the first woman to lead the country following next spring's elections. One of the arguments in her favor is the conservative administration's ongoing problem with its "first-time employment contract" for young people entering the work force. President Jacques Chirac's authority is diminished, Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin has been publicly humiliated and Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy is trying to use the situation to capitalize on his role as a mediator. The fact that the government withdrew the law last Friday and will now have to draft new legislation has hurt the entire conservative movement. This makes life easier for the opposition, and Royal is practically guaranteed an automatic boost to her popularity.

Despite her excellent prospects, Royal is an extremely unlikely contender for the country's highest office. She is the unmarried mother of two sons and two daughters. She has been a member of the Socialist Party (PS) since 1978, and yet she has never managed to put together her own team. She has spent years gathering experience in the Ministries of the Environment, Education, Family and Childhood and the Handicapped, and yet she was considered a political lightweight until only recently.

She also happens to have a personal handicap. Her life partner and the father of her children, Socialist Party leader François Hollande, is also a potential candidate to succeed current President Jacques Chirac. But when it comes to popularity, Royal has done more than outdistance her life partner -- in opinion polls she stands ahead of the entire old-guard Socialist competition, including former Prime Minister Laurent Fabius, former Minister of Finance Dominique Strauss-Kahn and former Minister of Culture Jack Lang. Lionel Jospin, the losing candidate in the 2002 presidential election, looks old next to Royal.

Royal owes part of her surge in popularity to the malicious macho posturing of her jealous rivals. But ever since she began outpolling the current conservative administration's top candidates, Sarkozy and Villepin, most of the attacks have subsided -- especially among her political rivals.

Sarkozy has praised the Socialist as a "woman of quality," Villepin says he holds her in "high esteem," and even the president's wife has credited Royal with having that "certain something." "She could be a serious candidate, and she could even win," says Bernadette Chirac, adding that Royal's "little Socialist comrades won't make it easy for her, but it's time for women to come into their own."

Royal enters the fray with several advantages, including the fact that she embodies the hope of renewal and a long overdue generational change -- and that she comes across as young, fresh and unused. She also promises to fulfill a need for "rupture" -- a break with the past -- among the French on both the left and the right.

Royal is the fourth of eight children, a family her father, Jacques, a retired artillery colonel, ran with military strictness. If any of the boys rebelled, he promptly had his head shaved. The goal of Jacques' authoritarian approach was to mould his sons into faithful servants of France and his daughters into dutiful wives.

Ségolène broke free of her father's tyranny while at boarding school, and she earned her degree in economics and politics at the École nationale d'administration, or ENA, a prestigious school where many French senior government officials receive their training. She managed to spare herself the tedium of rising through the ranks in the French legal system when, in 1982 -- together with her friend Hollande -- she was discovered by Jacques Attali, the special advisor to then-president François Mitterrand.

The media quickly pounced on the "Princess," her nickname at the Elysée Palace, where she made headlines as a girlish beauty who would occasionally bring her toddler to work. President Mitterand was impressed by the beauty with the ponytail, and in 1988 he dispatched her to Departement Deux-Sèvres in France's rural southwest, where she won her first mandate as a member of parliament.

Royal owed her success as a member of parliament to the simple but effective idea that actions speak louder than words. She avoided the lofty heights of ideological discourse, preferring to roll up her sleeves and turn her attention to the more mundane world of goat cheese production. She energetically opposed European Union dictates requiring all cheese to be pasteurized. She made an appearance in the garden of the Elysée Palace wearing a blue farmers' outfit, complete with a bonnet and a cheese basket, in a stunt that drew ridicule from fellow party members but impressed local farmers and mesmerized photographers.

Royal was successful in her later ministerial roles, partly because she was so adept at merging her professional activities with the events of her private life, including pregnancy and giving birth. The approach meant that her political ascendancy was accompanied by a never-ending flood of public images from her family album -- Ségolène with her baby, Ségolène having breakfast, and so on.

Royal tries to bring together the best of two worlds, supporting emancipation while continuing to emphasize her femininity. She wants to be attractive but not seductive, a champion of women's rights but also a dedicated mother who enjoys her role as part of her family and household. It's an attitude that infuriates France's feminists, but Royal doesn't care.

She has won 10 out of 11 elections in 17 years. Thanks to her good relations with the Elysée Palace, the "Valkyrie of Deux-Sèvres" manages to pump subsidies from Paris and the EU into her region, leaving her political opponents' constituencies high and dry.

She now has the full support of her party. For the first time since the Socialists' traumatic defeat in 2002, when Socialist Prime Minister Jospin was defeated in the primary by right-wing extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen, the Socialists have shed their heavy pessimism. Now, the left finally stands a chance at victory once again.

Royal's pragmatism -- her "we have to see what works and what doesn't" approach -- is effective, if only as a provocation, with those comrades who still have trouble burying their utopias.

Recently, as millions of Frenchmen protested against Prime Minister de Villepin's "first-time employment contract," Royal kept her comments on the uproar as neutral as possible, saying things like "it is critical that we be appreciative of work and effort once again." She has been cautious in expressing her views on students' involvement in the demonstrations: "Whenever the energy of youth is mobilized in a country for something other than development, it becomes a huge mess."

She is equally nonspecific when asked about her position on the country's persistently high unemployment, the hole in its state pension fund and the national deficit, or her opinions on crime, immigration and unrest in the suburbs. "I don't know everything, but I do know where the problems lie," says Royal, defending her reticence. "In the current phase, listening is very important."

But sentiments that critics would pounce upon as a sign of incompetence among her rivals are an expression of sincerity with Royal. "Our citizens aren't interested in yet another laundry list of unrealistic promises," says Jean-Luc Fulachier, the head of her administration in Poitiers. "The French are mainly searching for a credible personality."

"Ségolène is currently unbeatable," says Denis Leroy, who ran Royal's election campaign for years. He firmly believes that his favorite will prevail over the male competition at this autumns's party primary. "After all, the comrades want only one thing -- a candidate who can win."

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

i love segolene! I do really hope she wins!

_________________
When everything is made to be broken, I just want you to know you I am....

Aniisah Smile

Selon le baromètre TNS-Sofres-Unilog pour « Le Figaro », LCI et RTL, la candidate PS bénéficie d'un bon report des voix bayrouistes.

LE JEU reste ouvert. Depuis dimanche soir, l'idée d'une victoire confortable de Nicolas Sarkozy s'était installée dans les esprits. Notre premier baromètre de l'entre-deux-tours TNS-Sofres-Unilog (groupe Logica-CMG) risque de tempérer l'enthousiasme de l'équipe sarkozyste. Mais il pourrait aussi avoir pour effet de remobiliser ses électeurs. Cette enquête révèle en effet une issue du deuxième tour beaucoup plus incertaine que prévu : 51 % contre 49 %. En clair, malgré ses onze millions de voix et ses cinq points d'avance, le candidat UMP est loin d'avoir gagné. Il devra ferrailler jusqu'au bout et ne pas négliger les reports de voix du centre.

Car c'est l'autre enseignement de notre sondage : la candidate socialiste bénéficie d'un meilleur report des voix de François Bayrou (46 %) que son concurrent UMP (25 %). Mais 29 % n'ont pas encore pris leur décision. Cela marque une sensible dégradation des reports de voix UDF sur l'UMP. Jusqu'à présent, les premières enquêtes, réalisées dimanche soir par d'autres instituts, mesuraient plutôt un partage des suffrages à parts égales entre les deux finalistes. Ce mauvais report pour Nicolas Sarkozy est d'autant plus surprenant que, dans notre enquête, 70 % des sympathisants UDF déclarent spontanément vouloir voter pour le candidat UMP.

L'explication tiendrait au fait que, dimanche, bon nombre d'électeurs de Bayrou ne venaient pas de l'UDF, mais bien de la gauche.

La clé de l'Élysée

Quoi qu'il en soit, l'attitude qu'adoptera aujourd'hui le président de l'UDF, qui doit faire connaître ses intentions concernant le second tour, devrait peser lourd sur l'issue du match Sarkozy-Royal. Les électeurs bayrouistes détiennent plus que jamais la clé de l'Élysée. Ce résultat pourrait inciter l'ex-ministre de l'Intérieur à revoir sa stratégie d'ouverture vis-à-vis des centristes. « La stratégie des ralliements ne suffira pas. Il faudra aussi une ouverture sur les thématiques », estime un ministre.

Les autres reports de voix sont sans surprise. Les électeurs de Jean-Marie Le Pen se reportent à 62 % sur l'UMP. Ceux du trotskiste Olivier Besancenot à 78 % sur le PS. Cela est assez conforme aux enquêtes réalisées avant le premier tour.

Dans le détail catégorie par catégorie, il n'y a pas non plus de surprise. Ségolène Royal domine chez les 18-34 ans. Nicolas Sarkozy est plébiscité par les 35-49 ans et les retraités. La candidate PS devance son concurrent chez les ouvriers, mais elle est dominée chez les commerçants, les cadres et les employés.

Reste la question du pronostic. Les sympathisants UMP semblent avoir meilleur moral que ceux de la gauche. Seuls 28 % des partisans de la candidate PS pronostiquent une victoire de leur championne. Pour 90 % des électeurs sarkozystes, la victoire ne fait aucun doute

PARIS (AFP) - Socialist Segolene Royal on Friday accused her French presidential rival Nicolas Sarkozy of trying to block a center-left alliance and said her plans for a public discussion with defeated centrist Francois Bayrou would go ahead.
Trailing Sarkozy in the polls ahead of the May 6 presidential run-off, Royal has shaken up the French left by offering Bayrou's party a role in a future government, in hope of rallying the crucial votes of his seven million backers.

While Bayrou has refused to endorse either candidate, he has hinted he could vote for Royal if she revises her economic proposals. They will meet Saturday afternoon to try to hammer out common ground, Royal said.

Short of a formal accord, the Socialist and centrist closed ranks Friday against Sarkozy, accusing him of backroom manoeuvres to prevent a centre-left alliance from taking shape.
The row erupted when a television station called off a Royal-Bayrou debate planned for the weekend, citing French rules on sharing airtime between the finalists.

Royal accused Sarkozy of putting pressure on the station, saying "it's a problem when a candidate for the presidency not only refuses to hold a debate but also tries to prevent debates by others.
"These are methods from another age. They say a lot about a certain amount of conniving with powerful financial media interests," Royal said. "But we will not be silenced," she added.
Sarkozy will face off with Royal in a crucial televised debate on May 2 but has refused any direct discussion with Bayrou.

Bayrou, who has burned his bridges with Sarkozy by describing him as a "danger for democracy," earlier told French radio he was "convinced" the former interior minister was behind the decision to cancel.

"When I spoke on Wednesday of Nicolas Sarkozy's taste for intimidation and threat, this is exactly what we are talking about."

According to Royal's adviser Jack Lang, Sarkozy turned down an extra airtime slot that would have balanced out coverage and called the stance "blackmail".
In Sarkozy's camp, government spokesman Jean-Francois Cope rejected the accusations as "shameful and unworthy". The candidate's close ally Francois Fillon said the Royal-Bayrou meeting was a "media coup" organised by the centrist, describing him as a "bad loser".

Sarkozy's Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), long allied with the centrists, has used a carrot-and-stick approach, offering its members a place in government, while threatening to scrap electoral deals that allowed them to win seats in parliament.

Bayrou has ruled out any electoral deal with the Socialist Party or the UMP, announcing the creation of a new party, the Democratic Party, to contest legislative elections in June.
But at least 16 of the 29 members of parliament from his Union for French Democracy have already said they would vote for Sarkozy.

On Royal's left, her overtures to the centrist camp have provoked deep unease, and she took care to reassure her camp late Thursday that the prospect of naming Bayrou prime minister was "not on the cards right now".

But Clementine Autain, a Communist-linked deputy mayor of Paris, attacked her strategy in an interview in Le Figaro.

"Segolene Royal is not part of the left that I identify with," she said, warning that "her love story with Francois Bayrou is not making things any better."

In the battle to succeed 74-year-old Jacques Chirac -- president since 1995 -- a dozen polls conducted since Sunday show Sarkozy leading with 51 to 54 percent of voting intentions, ahead of Royal with 46 to 49 percent.

Opinion polls give varying figures on how Bayrou's supporters will vote. A CSA poll published Friday said 47 percent will back Royal and 35 percent Sarkozy.

While both finalists have promised to keep their attacks above the belt in the second round campaign, which officially kicked off at midnight Thursday, they traded indirect blows late Thursday.

Asked on television to name Sarkozy's main strength and weakness, Royal answered both times: "He knows everything, he has an answer to everything."

On a rival channel, Sarkozy, when told of her comments, fired back: "Well let's go ahead and choose a candidate who doesn't know everything and has no answers."

Nicolas Sarkozy, candidate of the ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party, will win the second round of French presidential elections set for May 6, with 52 percent of all the valid votes cast, according to an opinion poll published on Monday.

According to the results of the poll which was conducted by LH2 for 20 minutes, RMC and BFM television stations, Segolene Royal, candidate of the Socialist Party will garner 48 percent of all the votes cast during this round.

The opinion poll was conducted on Friday and Saturday, just before and after the broadcasted debate between Royal and centrist candidate Francois Bayrou who obtained 18.8 percent of all the votes cast during the first round.

About 80 percent of the respondents said that they were sure of their final choice, 12 percent preferred one candidate but could change opinion, while eight percent were still hesitant.

On the night of the first round, LH2 conducted an opinion poll for 20 minutes, RMC and BFM television stations showing that 54 percent of the voters preferred Sarkozy against 46 percent for Royal.

Around 40 percent of Bayrou supporters are still not sure who to vote for during the second round of the elections.

There is still time till the 6th of may. Segolene can still do it...people's opinions change all the time....atleast i hope those of the French will...

Go Segolene!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

_________________
When everything is made to be broken, I just want you to know you I am....

Aniisah Smile

Ségolène Royal last night surprised France and her rightwing opponent Nicolas Sarkozy by coming out all guns blazing to attack him during their much awaited live televised head-to-head debate.
The moment of high emotion and fireworks came out of the blue, in a surprise clash over the seemingly inoffensive subject of schooling for handicapped children. Ms Royal accused the presidential frontrunner of hypocrisy and immorality, saying his government had scrapped measures he now claimed as his own.

"I'm scandalised!" she fumed. "It's the height of political immorality," He in turn told her, "Calm down, and don't wave your finger at me", suggesting she had "lost her nerve" whereas a presidential figure must learn how to stay calm.
"No I won't calm down in the face of injustice!" she snapped back, before the pair exchanged a quick-fire volley over exactly how angry she was.

Trailing between six to four points behind Mr Sarkozy in the opinion polls for months, and with several million voters undecided ahead of Sunday's election, the debate had been seen as Ms Royal's last chance to level the playing field.

In an election focused as much on personality as on policy, the televised duel - watched by more than 20m viewers, matched only by World Cup football audiences - was scrutinised for the all-important "charisma factor".

Political commentators on chatshows assessed the exchange for signs of psychological strength and to see who got upper-hand in the battle to be boss. They agreed Ms Royal had surprised the nation by showing she had the gumption and standing of a president and had boosted her image, although Mr Sarkozy was tactically brilliant on policy detail. Attacked throughout the campaign by the left as a quick-tempered, volatile, bully, he succeeded in his goal of keeping calm.

Ms Royal was seen to have scored points with her forceful approach, even though some conceded she was weaker on arguments and fine detail than Mr Sarkozy, a trained lawyer. Having been accused of leading a lacklustre campaign and failing to master key policy or confront her rival, Ms Royal put her famously combative and assured opponent on the back-foot at the start of the debate, which lasted more than 2½ hours.

She homed in on what Mr Sarkozy presents as his strong point - law and order - lambasting him for talking tough, but doing nothing in his five years as interior minister. During the opening questions Ms Royal repeatedly interjected with the words "tolerance zero", which she said Mr Sarkozy had refused to deliver.

He scored points on employment policy, ridiculing the Socialists' cherished 35-hour week. He dismissed Ms Royal's attempts to defend the measure, calling it a "monumental error" and a "catastrophe for France". He promised to allow French people to "work more to earn more".

Ms Royal argued this was the wrong way to fix France's acute employment problem. She pursued a state-intervionist line, while he called for lower taxes, freeing businesses in a "pragmatic way". He said: "The problem with France is that we pay too much tax."

Asked what type of president he would be, Mr Sarkozy said he would be a man of "action" and "not hide behind taboos". His aim was to restore France's "morale". In a dig at Mr Sarkozy, Ms Royal said of her vision of the presidency: "It is possible to reform France without brutalising it. I won't pit people against each other." Afterwards, she said she had shown that she was solid, that she believed in herself, and that she had "values and morals" stronger than her opponent's; she had proved that a woman could be president.

Mr Sarkozy's supporters said his arguments on "what mattered" - France's economic problems, the 35-hour week, and pensions - were much clearer.

She lost!!!! weiiiiiiiin!!! moi je di ki les franC sont dan la merde!!! Sad

54% Sarko...46% Sego...

enfin....

_________________
When everything is made to be broken, I just want you to know you I am....

Aniisah Smile

PARIS (Reuters) -
Sarkozy's face flashed up on television screens after polling stations closed at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT), signalling his victory and setting off jubilant scenes among supporters gathered in central Paris.

Across the city at Socialist headquarters there was gloom and sorrow after the party crashed to its third consecutive presidential election defeat. It now faces the prospect of tough internal reform to make itself more appealing to voters.

Although opinion polls regularly suggested voters preferred Royal, who was seeking to become France's first woman head of state, they saw the uncompromising Sarkozy as a more competent leader with a more convincing economic program.

Sarkozy, the son of a Hungarian immigrant, presented himself as the "candidate of work," promising to loosen the 35-hour work week by offering tax breaks on overtime and to trim fat from the public service, cut taxes and wage war on unemployment.

He is expected to take office on May 16 or 17, and will be the first French president to be born after World War Two.

He will then name a new government and immediately launch into campaigning for June's parliamentary election, where he will seek a clear majority to implement his reform plans.

The president is elected for five years, is commander-in-chief of the armed forces, nominates the prime minister, has the right to dissolve the National Assembly and is responsible for foreign and defense policies.